Why the bookie is cheating and You can't win!
It is a shame that in today's society you have countless people looking for a real way to bet on sporting events in hopes to win a profit. 70% of the people who do this are doing it for fun and are looking to heighten there day with a cheeky bet. The other 20% are planning on placing bets more often and are in the mindset of looking to make a secondary income. The remaining 10% of people betting try to bet for as many hours as they work full time in hopes of earning a secondary income. I can tell you that in working with people who absolutely love betting for over 20 years, I would say that even 1% seems high for people who can actually earn a profit every month. Let's address this and understand why this is happening!
The bookies curate all there advertising content to your demographic! Typically the people looking to bet fall within a few different categories, give or take a bit different.
Demographic 1- You are sick and tired of working your dead end job and feel that you can find a betting structure that can help you pay for your expenses or save up for something now or over time.
Demographic 2-You have extra money after expenses and want to have some fun. Don't really care about if you win or lose.
Demographic 3- You have seen tipsters on social media or have heard of winning "cappers" and think if you find the right one then this could be you.
Now that we know what kind of "demographic" you fall into, the bookie will tailor all there designs and social media, SEO, AdWords to you! They even have fake Twitter account promoting how much they are winning so that you believe that if you follow there tips that you can also be a winning player. Or how about that friend that one that massive bet? Maybe this could be you....right? My favorite line, " Using past research this outcome should happen"!
You did research so you are prepared, right?! Wrong It Doesn't Matter!
You have just finished reading a great summary for why a game should end with the home team winning. You just read this from a "proven tipster" or did the research yourself for a few hours! Wow the odds are at 1.75 too, great right? Not even close to great!
This is how the bookies value you a bet but before I get into that, you have to understand value in betting. Value can be define as a bet offering higher odds then what the real odds should be. You might ask well, how do I find the real odds? Most tipsters and "cappers" think they can figure this out by finding pre match stats to identify a gap in the market and then suggest what to bet on...This doesn't matter.
Lets take an example: Someone approaches you and says "Hey, I am going to flip this coin 10 times and you are heads and you bet $10 at odds of 2.00 for every flip. If it lands on heads you earn $10 profit and if it lands on tails then I earn $10." In this example, maybe in 10 flips, it would be 60/40 for heads or something like that based on pure luck. But if we did this even a 100 times we would eventually be close to 50/50 and you would be around break even. This is a scenario where the odds are at 2.00 and our actuality of winning is 50% as there is only 2 options.
We WISH bookies would value bets like this! In actuality the bookie will get a scenario like this, use million dollar software systems and create there own plot graph and Beta Analysis to predict the best possible outcome along with using inside information on pre match game lineups, injuries etc. Once the bookies believes they know the most probably outcome; They will heavily remove percentages from every side. So if using an example saying the Home side should win at 1.80 odds and the Away side will win at 2.20 odds, The bookie will remove up to 10% from each side which would now be 1.70 odds for home to win and 2.10 odds for away to win. This in theory means that regardless of the outcome, the bookie is going to be winning 10% plus the difference for all the people who bet on there website who have lost. Another way of looking at this is lets say a match had a 50/50 chance for each team to win. Both outcomes are supposed to offer 2.00 odds known as the "true Value" but a bookie will price it now at 45%/45% at 1.90 odds for each team. Originally if you had odds at 2.00 then you could break even over time if you kept placing bets on this. But since the bookies dropped the actual odds down, even if you win over time you will always be winning less then you should and this is called "Negative Expected Value"
Even if you did all the research in the world and decided that the home team will win, and they in fact do, you are actually losing 10% from what you should have earned from that game. Even if a tipster is winning for a month or even 2, the tips are not true value and over time they will lose...
So How Can You Win Profit From Football Betting?!
I know that friends, family and may others are sick and tired of losing to the bookies and I bet so are you! They make everyone think that if you just keep betting, over time you will have a chance. They are bullying you and everyone around them in order to squeeze every penny out of you. But there is one method that works and it's called +EV betting systems.
There are 2 systems currently in place that use past stats but not in the way you think. Using past stats means to identify the probability for something happening and then allocating points towards categories that will tell you how strong of a bet or probability will be. This is also knows as creating a poison distribution model. We then find the "true value" for a match and compare it to what the bookies are offering and ensure the difference is not more then 10%. From here we then identify a methodological method for doing the same bet size on a given outcome that doesn't even use the odds to effect our profit/loss over time. This is called making +EV decisions. In following good bankroll management and being consistent the system will win over time.
We are now making this system available to new members who are sick and tired of losing there money to the bookies. We can only take in so many people or the odds will fluctuate.
Absolutely No Risk To You!
Regardless of the position you are in right now or demographic that you fall into above, if your looking for a way to beat the bookies then there is only 1 option. Follow a proven system that does all the hard work for you!
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https://t.me/SBWSDraws